NATO kicked off the largest air force deployment exercise Air Defender 2023, in Germany on June 12. The 10-day exercise is the biggest-ever of its kind in NATO's history, and takes place in the vast areas extending to the Russia-Ukraine border, with Germany as the center. The US even dispatched aircraft including B-1 bombers and F-35 fighter jets to participate in the drill.
史上最大規模的北約“空中衛士-23”軍事演習12日在德國開幕，此次演習為北約歷史上最大，時間跨度長達十天，演習地點以德國為中心向東擴展到俄烏邊境。美國還動用了B-1戰略轟炸機、F-35戰斗機等大殺器參加演習。
It is worth noting that the exercise happened against the backdrop of escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine. As the Ukrainian military was poised for a strategic counterattack, the Nova Kakhovka dam collapsed after several explosions, resulting in a severe humanitarian crisis and environmental disaster. Afterward, some NATO member countries declared that they would provide more medium- and long-range offensive missiles to Ukraine. The US hinted that it might allow Ukraine to attack the mainland of Russia. Some Eastern European countries even claimed that they would bypass NATO and directly deploy troops in Ukraine.
值得注意的是，演習之前，俄烏戰事正處于陡然升級的過程當中。在烏克蘭發動大反攻之際，卡霍夫卡水庫大壩突然被炸，導致嚴重的人道主義危機和環境災難。此后，一些北約國家揚言將向烏克蘭提供更多的中遠程進攻型導彈，美國則放風說不排除會允許烏克蘭打擊俄羅斯本土，甚至還有一些東歐國家聲稱他們將繞過北約直接向烏克蘭境內派兵參戰。
Liu Heping, a Chinese military commentator, believes that NATO launched this large-scale joint air defense exercise because, on the one hand, it intends to pacify some aggressive member states that itch for action and to unify the paces of its member countries; on the other hand, it wants to incite Ukraine to “take bold actions to attack Russia since NATO would back it” while warning Russia not to “escalate the conflict into a nuclear war”.
軍事評論員劉和平認為，北約舉行這次大規模的空中聯合軍事演習，一方面是為了安撫一些情緒激動蠢蠢欲動的北約國家，并且統一北約各國的行動步驟。另一方面則是為了向烏克蘭發出“放心大膽去反攻，北約在背后撐腰”的信號，同時也再度向俄羅斯發出“不得將戰事升級為核戰爭”的信號。
Previously, Lieutenant General Michael A. Loh, director of the US Air National Guard, told The Wall Street Journal that the exercise went beyond deterrence; it was a true, serious military maneuver and deployment. “The subtext behind his words is that if unexpected situations occur in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, there is a possibility for NATO to be directly involved in the war,” Liu noted. “Perhaps NATO will participate in the war in the form of large-scale air raids and targeted killings. It is unlikely that NATO will deploy ground troops.”
美國空軍國民警衛隊司令邁克爾·洛中將此前對《華爾街日報》表示，此次演習不僅僅是威懾，同時還是一次認認真真的軍事調動與部署?！斑@背后的潛臺詞就是，假如俄烏戰場態勢出現了令人意想不到的進展，不排除北約將會直接下場參戰。且北約參戰的方式或將是大規模的空中打擊與定點清除，不太可能會派出地面部隊，”劉和平分析。
Though not a NATO member, Japan sent its Self-Defense Forces to participate in Air Defender 2023. This was the first time Japan joined NATO's air deployment exercises. Liu pointed out that Japan's participation is unexpected, considering that the country on the west coast of the Pacific Ocean hasn't joined NATO yet and is under the constraint of the Article 9 of its constitution.
“空中衛士-2023”聯合軍演中，非北約成員國日本也派出自衛隊參演，這也是日本自衛隊首次參加北約的空中軍演。劉和平指出，遠在太平洋西岸、不僅不是北約成員國，且受到本國憲法第九條約束的日本也要參加，這令人感到十分突兀。
He noted that through dispatching its Self-Defense Forces to participate in the exercise, Japan not only tried to fawn on NATO, so as to prepare for introducing NATO into the Asia-Pacific region and establishing the NATO office in Tokyo, but also harbored ulterior motives.
他認為，日本派遣自衛隊參加北約“空中衛士”軍演，不僅是在向北約套近乎，遞投名狀，為接下來將北約引進亞太，在東京設立辦事處做準備，而且另有所圖。
According to Michael A. Loh, the exercise aimed to enable the NATO forces to achieve similar deployments in places as far as the ROK or Japan within hours, instead of months, in the future. Liu commented that this means if NATO is directly involved in the war with Russia, its allied forces will attack Russia from the west, namely Europe, and Japan, the ROK, as well as the US troops stationed in the two countries, will attack Russia from the east, namely Northeast Asia, thus forming a pincer attack.
根據美國空軍國民警衛隊司令邁克爾·洛中將的說法，這次軍事演習，為的是“未來可以讓盟軍在幾個小時，而不是幾個月內，在遠至韓國或日本的地方實施類似部署”。劉和平分析，這背后透露出的信息是，一旦北約直接下場對俄羅斯開戰，不僅北約盟軍會從西面，也就是歐洲方向向俄羅斯發動進攻，且日本、韓國以及美國駐扎在日韓的美軍還將從東面，也就是東北亞方向向俄羅斯發動進攻，形成東西兩面夾擊之勢。
“In my view, the reason Japan participated in NATO's large-scale joint air defense exercise Air Defender 2023 may be to get prepared to attack Russia from the east once it is involved in the war, and at the same time, this move aimed to offset the influence of Russia's ongoing military drills in the Baltic Sea in the west as well as the Sea of Japan and the Sea of Okhotsk in the east,” Liu added.
“我預判日本這次參與北約‘空中衛士23’大規?？罩新摵宪娧?，或是在為將來一旦開戰，可以從東面進攻俄羅斯做準備。同時也是對沖俄羅斯當前在西面波羅的海與東面日本海、鄂霍次克海同時展開的軍演?！?/p>
It is likely that Japan intends to gain leverage for the dispute on the Southern Kurils (claimed as the Northern Territories by Japan) by joining NATO's war against Russia. Liu said this explained the rumor that after the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Japan and Germany may provide economic compensation to Ukraine in place of Russia, and the latter may have to return some disputed territories to Japan and Germany. Therefore, many countries which have territorial disputes with Russia due to historical reasons are itching for a try.
對于日本來說，可能還有意通過參與北約對俄羅斯的戰爭，在南千島群島（日方稱“北方四島”）問題上爭取籌碼。劉認為,這就是為什么近來流傳出這樣一則消息，即在俄烏沖突結束之后，可以由日本與德國代替俄羅斯向烏克蘭進行經濟補償，而俄羅斯則將部分領土歸還給德國與日本的原因。所以，當前很多跟俄羅斯存在領土主權糾紛或是有歷史過節國家，都在暗中摩拳擦掌，躍躍欲試。
Editor's note: Originally published on baijiahao.baidu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
